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Tuesday, November 15, 2011

Is Devin Hester really that good?

Watching Devin Hester run seemingly untouched to the end zone after fielding a punt against the Lions this past Sunday to extend his all-time career record, I started to wonder if Hester was truly the greatest punt returner ever or if he was just really good at following blocks. Thanks to YouTube I was able to watch every Hester return for a touchdown; all 19, including the field goal return against the Giants and his Super Bowl return. In all but four returns, Hester simply follows his blocks and runs untouched into the end zone. Only 4 of his 19 returns required him to make an impressive juke or break a tackle or two.


At 19 returns, the sample size is large enough to assume that maybe Hester doesn’t possess some rare skill that has elevated him to the top of the NFL’s record books. I started to wonder if maybe Hester was simply the beneficiary of an excellent special teams coach. Was Dave Toub, the Bears’ special teams coordinator since ’04, the real reason for Hester’s success? Even in the four challenging returns we don’t see any mind boggling moves that help spring Hester free. Most of Hester’s returns won’t show up on any all-time top ten lists. What does it mean that the guy with more touchdown returns than any other player in history doesn’t have one truly memorable return?

I started to feel as though I was discrediting Hester’s achievements simply because they weren’t aesthetically pleasing. Normally when you think of punt returns, ones like DeSean Jackson’s game winner against the Giants last season pop into your head. When you think of great punt returners, guys with nicknames like the “Human Joystick” enter your thoughts.  Downplaying Hester’s returns because they weren’t flashy enough is like saying Reggie Miller’s jump shot was just decent because it didn’t look like your stereotypical jumper.

I felt like I needed to find some hard evidence to prove my theory. With the help of the wonderful website, Pro-Football-Reference.com, I was able to dig a little deeper into the world of touchdown returns. I was able to bring up every return for touchdown since the 2000 season; all 201 of them. Breaking down the number of punt returns for each team revealed to no surprise that the Bears are the leaders in this category. Slightly surprising was looking at the number for the past 12 Super Bowl winners. Eight of the past twelve winners ranked in the bottom half of the league.
Touchdown Returns Since 2000
Team
TDs
Team
TDs
Team
TDs
Team
TDs
CHI
25
ARI
12
BAL
10
GB
8
NYJ
18
DET
12
DEN
10
SF
8
OAK
18
HOU
12
MIN
10
IND
7
CLE
15
ATL
11
PIT
10
NYG
7
BUF
14
NO
11
TB
10
CIN
6
NE
14
PHI
11
TEN
10
JAX
6
DAL
13
SEA
11
CAR
9
MIA
5
KC
13
WAS
11
SD
9
STL
5






Avg
11

Using the information that I gathered here I started to drill it down to reveal the truth behind Hester. I thought my first bit of evidence would be to give Bears’ special teams coordinator, Dave Toub, the credit. Toub was the Eagle’s special teams coordinator from ’01-04. Looking at the league’s returns from ’01-04 revealed that the Kansas City Chiefs, who benefited from the services of Dante Hall, were tops with 9 returns for touchdowns.  Philly was sixth best with 4 returns, however, 3-5 touchdowns seemed to be the norm for teams around that period of time. In the one year where the Bears had Toub without Hester, the Bears only produced one touchdown return, so it would appear that Dave Toub did not have as big an impact as I originally thought.

The real jump for the Bears came in ’06 when they drafted Hester. Since 2000 the Bears have returned 26 touchdowns. Removing Hester’s 19 returns drops them down to 8 which ranks in the bottom quarter of the list for that time and 3 below the league average.

After analyzing some hard facts it appears that while he may not the flashiest returner ever, Hester is certainly the best. Just because Hester seems to have figured out what no one else has been able to (run fast and follow the big guys in front of you) doesn’t downgrade the fact that he has been able to find the end zone more times than “Primetime”, Josh Cribbs, Dante Hall or any other memorable punt returner in history. With plenty of years left in his career, more returns are certain and Hester will solidify his spot as the greatest returner ever.

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